How climate crisis politicisation in Syria could spark terrorism, insurgency

Opinion by Ulta Levenia

The absence of international assistance is said to cause a troubled state to fail to comply with their people’s demands and pave the way for a rebellion. (Photo: youmatter.world)

Securitisation of climate is a political process where many interests are contested and powers are at stake. Because of political contestation, for some countries, the impact of the climate crisis on society comes after the importance of maintaining power. Instead of prioritising society, governments seek to gain an advantage from the securitisation process or use the climate crisis as a bargaining chip in global politics.

Climate change is a global responsibility, and every country should take part in maintaining its balance for sustainable development and the future of humanity. However, political interest is a significant part of a country’s consideration to participate in international causes, including helping other countries to circumvent the crisis. Because climate change is a global concern, all countries must have the common decency to tackle the crisis. A perspective disharmony in how the climate crisis should be handled will cause the climate issue to be shrouded in political competition and fail to address the core problem.

In July 2022, Russia vetoed the UNSC resolution to maintain Syrian aid through Turkey- Syria’s Northwestern border. Russia argued that this activity did not have the consent of the Syrian government and was considered a violation of Syrian sovereignty. But Carsten Wieland (2021), in “Syria and the Neutrality Trap”, suspected that humanitarian aid to help the Syrian people that goes through Damascus would not reach its target due to lack of transparency and the possibility that the money used for the government’s war against the insurgency. Furthermore, the reluctance of the Asaad government to help people in rebel-controlled areas caused the humanitarian aid to never reach the most affected people. 

This argument was bolstered by the statement from the US Representative to the UN, Richard Mills, that said Russia only sought to defend the Assad regime and expand the Russian interest in Syria by disputing the resolution. However, after the civil war started in Syria, the US attempted to fuel the conflict in Syria by providing arms to the Kurdish Militia that controlled the Northwestern part of Syria and opposed the Assad regime. Given all the devastating effects on Syrian stability, Dmitry Polyanskiy, Russia’s Deputy UN Ambassador, insisted that it is an effort to politicise the climate crisis by the US and its allies.

Politicising the climate crisis in Syria will cause more devastation to humanity. While some countries are busy strategising humanitarian aid, more than 2.4 million people in Syria will be affected by this vicious political competition. Russia’s veto is crystal clear to help Assad to maintain the status quo against what they believe as ‘Western attempts to weaken the Syrian government’. Russia argued that the “illegal” aid would help the insurgency stronger. At the same time, the Asaad government also seeks to eliminate the group that opposes his regime for the sake of political stability. There is also a fear that cross-border humanitarian aid is utilised by a country such as the United States and its alliances to feed the insurgent and cause the civil war that again led to the re-emerging of a global terrorist group like ISIS in the region. 

On the other side, the absence of international aid and weak local government is the main factor in the rise of rebels. Robert I. Rotberg (2003) stated that the absence of international assistance would cause the state to fail to comply with their people’s demands and pave the way for a rebellion. In the same vein, a counterinsurgency strategist, David Kilcullen (2010), argued that the people tend to support the insurgent group because of grievances against the government and the fact that some insurgent groups can deliver people’s needs in an instant compared to a prolonged bureaucratic process of government. 

Threats such as terrorism are bound to happen in failed states like Syria. However, the Asaad regime seemingly chose not to prevent it because, in 2013, the terrorist groups were helping him to eradicate the rebels. Beyond all the political interests, people in Syria suffer from extreme weather, drought and starvation. But there are still countries that oppose help and sceptics of the gravity of the crisis. 

Indeed, some arguments show scepticism about the climate crisis’s contribution to the conflict in Syria. Marwa Doudy’s research in 2022 found that the climate crisis had no significant impact on the conflict in Syria. Instead, the weak political consolidation and bad policies in infrastructure are responsible for the Syrian conflict. Nevertheless, treating the climate crisis inadequately will cause more damage to society. Not only does the climate crisis amplify the pre-existing causes of conflict, but it could also damage regional stability. Jamar Saghir, a professor at McGill University, called this a toxic cocktail where anger, starvation, and depression could lead to instability. This is how climate change is labelled as a “threats multiplier” due to its connection to the pre-existing conflict factors. 

While international humanitarian aid faces some regulation issues in delivering aid to the Syrian people, the terrorist group, unfortunately (or rather fortunately), has more flexibility to help those in need. Jon Beck in 2021 released a story about how terrorist groups efficiently raised funds to help Syrian people in the camp. He argued that the complex cross-border issues of delivering humanitarian aid to Syria give the terrorist group some leverages that would mount rapid radicalisation and potentially breed future ISIS members. 

It is clear that if the government and international communities do not act accordingly to the core issue of the climate crisis, other groups will get some advantages. Therefore, the politicisation of the climate crisis in Syria will be a humanitarian disaster and a long-term international security issue. The world would expect illegal climate refugees, radicalisation, and terrorist cells to operate beyond the border. The world needs decisive uniformity when it comes to dealing with climate crisis threats to prevent this disaster. Without the same perspective, the climate crisis will only become a political competition rather than a humanitarian one. 

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Ulta Levenia is an Indonesia-based lead researcher of the Galatea Thinktank on Terrorism and Political Violence and an MA student at the University of Leeds in the UK.

Bibliography 

Beck, Jon. (2021). Funding the needy, or Funding Terror? Rest of the world: reporting Global Tech Stories. Accessed via: https://restofworld.org/2021/humanitarian-aid-or-isis-fundraising/, on 4 April 2023. 

Doudy, Marwa. (2022). The Syrian Revolution: A Story of Politics, not Climate Change. RUSI, accessed via: https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/syrian-revolution-story-politics-not-climate-change, on 23 March 2023.

Jamar Sahir comments on Holleis, Jennifer. (2021). How Climate Change Paved the Way to War in Syria. Accessed via: https://www.dw.com/en/how-climate-change-paved-the-way-to-war-in-syria/a-56711650, on 2 April 2023. 

Kilcullen, David. (2010). Counterinsurgency. C Hurst & Co Publishers Ltd; Annotated edition.

Rotberg, Robert I. 2016. Failed States, Collapsed States, Weak States. Brookings Institute. 

Wieland, Carsten. (2021). Syria and the Neutrality Trap: The Dilemmas of Delivering Humanitarian Aid Through Violent Regimes. Bloomsbury Academic.